Individualized model for predicting COVID-19 deterioration in patients with cancer: A multicenter retrospective study.

The 2019 novel coronavirus has spread rapidly around the world. Cancer patients seem to be more susceptible to infection and disease deterioration, but the factors affecting the deterioration remain unclear. We aimed to develop an individualized model for prediction of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) deterioration in cancer patients. The clinical data of 276 cancer patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in 33 designated hospitals of Hubei, China from December 21, 2019 to March 18, 2020, were collected and randomly divided into a training and a validation cohort by a ratio of 2:1. Cox stepwise regression analysis was carried out to select prognostic factors. The prediction model was developed in the training cohort. The predictive accuracy of the model was quantified by C-index and time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (t-AUC). Internal validation was assessed by the validation cohort. Risk stratification based on the model was carried out. Decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the clinical usefulness of the model. We found age, cancer type, computed tomography baseline image features (ground glass opacity and consolidation), laboratory findings (lymphocyte count, serum levels of C-reactive protein, aspartate aminotransferase, direct bilirubin, urea, and d-dimer) were significantly associated with symptomatic deterioration. The C-index of the model was 0.755 in the training cohort and 0.779 in the validation cohort. The t-AUC values were above 0.7 within 8 weeks both in the training and validation cohorts. Patients were divided into two risk groups based on the nomogram: low-risk (total points ≤ 9.98) and high-risk (total points > 9.98) group. The Kaplan-Meier deterioration-free survival of COVID-19 curves presented significant discrimination between the two risk groups in both training and validation cohorts. The model indicated good clinical applicability by DCA curves. This study presents an individualized nomogram model to individually predict the possibility of symptomatic deterioration of COVID-19 in patients with cancer.

Association between recent oncologic treatment and mortality among patients with carcinoma who are hospitalized with COVID-19: A multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: To the authors' knowledge, little is known regarding the association between recent oncologic treatment and mortality in patients with cancer who are infected with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The objective of the current study was to determine whether recent oncologic treatment is associated with a higher risk of death among patients with carcinoma who are hospitalized with COVID-19. METHODS: Data regarding 248 consecutive patients with carcinoma who were hospitalized with COVID-19 were collected retrospectively from 33 hospitals in Hubei Province, China, from January 1, 2020, to March 25, 2020. The follow-up cutoff date was July 22, 2020. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify variables associated with a higher risk of death. RESULTS: Of the 248 patients enrolled, the median age was 63 years and 128 patients (52%) were male. On admission, 147 patients (59%) did not undergo recent oncologic treatment, whereas 32 patients (13%), 25 patients (10%), 12 patients (5%), and 10 patients (4%), respectively, underwent chemotherapy, surgery, targeted therapy, and radiotherapy. At the time of last follow-up, 51 patients (21%) were critically ill during hospitalization, 40 of whom had died. Compared with patients without receipt of recent oncologic treatment, the mortality rate of patients who recently received oncologic treatment was significantly higher (24.8% vs 10.2%; hazard ratio, 2.010 [95% CI, 1.079-3.747; P = .027]). After controlling for confounders, recent receipt of chemotherapy (odds ratio [OR], 7.495; 95% CI, 1.398-34.187 [P = .015]), surgery (OR, 8.239; 95% CI, 1.637-41.955 [P = .012]), and radiotherapy (OR, 15.213; 95% CI, 2.091-110.691 [P = .007]) were identified as independently associated with a higher risk of death. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the current study demonstrated a possible association between recent receipt of oncologic treatment and a higher risk of death among patients with carcinoma who are hospitalized with COVID-19.

An online tool for predicting the prognosis of cancer patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection: a multi-center study.

PURPOSE: During the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, oncologists face new challenges, and they need to adjust their cancer management strategies as soon as possible to reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and tumor recurrence. However, data on cancer patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection remains scarce. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study on 223 cancer patients with SARS-CoV-2 from 26 hospitals in Hubei, China. An individualized nomogram was constructed based on multivariate Cox analysis. Considering the convenience of the nomogram application, an online tool was also created. The predictive performance and clinical application of nomogram were verified by C-index, calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: Among cancer patients with SARS-CoV-2, there were significant differences in clinical characteristics between survivors and non-survivors, and compared with patients with solid tumors including lung cancer, patients with hematological malignancies had a worse prognosis. Male, dyspnea, elevated PCT, increased heart rate, elevated D-dimers, and decreased platelets were risk factors for these patients. Furthermore, a good prediction performance of the online tool (dynamic nomogram: https://covid-19-prediction-tool.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/ ) was also fully demonstrated with the C-indexes of 0.841 (95% CI 0.782-0.900) in the development cohort and 0.780 (95% CI 0.678-0.882) in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION: Overall, cancer patients with SARS-CoV-2 had unique clinical features, and the established online tool could guide clinicians to predict the prognosis of patients during the COVID-19 epidemic and to develop more rational treatment strategies for cancer patients.

A nomogram for predicting mortality in patients with COVID-19 and solid tumors: a multicenter retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Individualized prediction of mortality risk can inform the treatment strategy for patients with COVID-19 and solid tumors and potentially improve patient outcomes. We aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality of patients with COVID-19 with solid tumors. METHODS: We enrolled patients with COVID-19 with solid tumors admitted to 32 hospitals in China between December 17, 2020, and March 18, 2020. A multivariate logistic regression model was constructed via stepwise regression analysis, and a nomogram was subsequently developed based on the fitted multivariate logistic regression model. Discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were evaluated by estimating the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) for the model and by bootstrap resampling, a Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and visual inspection of the calibration curve. RESULTS: There were 216 patients with COVID-19 with solid tumors included in the present study, of whom 37 (17%) died and the other 179 all recovered from COVID-19 and were discharged. The median age of the enrolled patients was 63.0 years and 113 (52.3%) were men. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that increasing age (OR=1.08, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.16), receipt of antitumor treatment within 3 months before COVID-19 (OR=28.65, 95% CI 3.54 to 231.97), peripheral white blood cell (WBC) count ≥6.93 ×109/L (OR=14.52, 95% CI 2.45 to 86.14), derived neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (dNLR; neutrophil count/(WBC count minus neutrophil count)) ≥4.19 (OR=18.99, 95% CI 3.58 to 100.65), and dyspnea on admission (OR=20.38, 95% CI 3.55 to 117.02) were associated with elevated mortality risk. The performance of the established nomogram was satisfactory, with an AUC of 0.953 (95% CI 0.908 to 0.997) for the model, non-significant findings on the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and rough agreement between predicted and observed probabilities as suggested in calibration curves. The sensitivity and specificity of the model were 86.4% and 92.5%. CONCLUSION: Increasing age, receipt of antitumor treatment within 3 months before COVID-19 diagnosis, elevated WBC count and dNLR, and having dyspnea on admission were independent risk factors for mortality among patients with COVID-19 and solid tumors. The nomogram based on these factors accurately predicted mortality risk for individual patients.